# Weekly market bulletin: template

*Template from a worked example by Ahmed Beddi. The figures in square brackets are placeholders; the example values in grey notes come from the synthetic data of the notebook and are not real prices.*

---

**Irrigated valley market bulletin, No. [__] — week of [date]**
Rice (paddy and milled local rice) and onion. Prices in [currency] per kg, collected [day] by [n] enumerators in [n] markets.

## 1. This week at a glance

| Market | Price | Change on last week | Gap to seasonal norm | Flag |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Paddy, farm gate | [ ] | [ ]% | [ ]% | [none / high / low] |
| Milled rice, Valley market A | [ ] | [ ]% | [ ]% | [ ] |
| Milled rice, regional wholesale | [ ] | [ ]% | [ ]% | [ ] |
| Milled rice, capital wholesale | [ ] | [ ]% | [ ]% | [ ] |
| Imported rice, import parity | [ ] | [ ]% | [ ]% | [ ] |
| Onion, farm gate | [ ] | [ ]% | [ ]% | [ ] |
| Onion, Valley market A | [ ] | [ ]% | [ ]% | [ ] |
| Onion, regional wholesale | [ ] | [ ]% | [ ]% | [ ] |
| Onion, capital wholesale | [ ] | [ ]% | [ ]% | [ ] |

*Example (synthetic): onion at farm gate 28.58, +24.6% above its seasonal norm, high flag; paddy at farm gate 37.01, −1.8%, no flag.*

**Rule used for flags.** A price is flagged when it has been outside its seasonal band for two consecutive weeks, on the same side. The band is the seasonal norm ± 2 robust standard deviations of past gaps.

## 2. What the flags mean (two or three sentences)

[Which markets are flagged, since when, likely cause from field reports, whether the flag is spreading from the capital to the valley or the reverse.]

*For:* producers' organisations and cooperatives (when to sell), the planning unit (whether to look into a market problem).

## 3. Spreads and margins

| Indicator | This week | Same week, 5-year mean |
|---|---:|---:|
| Rice: capital minus Valley market A | [ ] | [ ] |
| Onion: capital minus Valley market A | [ ] | [ ] |
| Rice: share of capital price not reaching the farm gate | [ ]% | [ ]% |
| Onion: share of capital price not reaching the farm gate | [ ]% | [ ]% |
| Local milled rice as a share of import parity | [ ]% | [ ]% |

*For:* cooperatives and traders (whether moving produce to the capital pays this week), investors in milling, storage and transport (where the margin sits), the planning unit and donors (whether local rice stays competitive with imports).

## 4. Storage: does holding pay this season?

At seasonal-norm prices, with [loss]% weight loss a month, [rate]% monthly financing and a fee of [fee] per tonne per month:

- Paddy bought in [month]: holding pays if sold between [month] and [month]; best month [month], about [ ] per tonne. Holding to [lean-season month] [does / does not] pay.
- Onion bought in [month]: holding pays if sold in [months]; it stops paying if storage losses exceed [ ]% a month.

*For:* cooperatives and warehouse operators (sell or store), lenders of warehouse-receipt or inventory credit (what interest rate the margin can carry).

## 5. Outlook: 4 and 12 weeks

| Series | Median in 4 weeks | 80% band | Median in 12 weeks | 80% band |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Milled rice, capital wholesale | [ ] | [ ] – [ ] | [ ] | [ ] – [ ] |
| Onion, capital wholesale | [ ] | [ ] – [ ] | [ ] | [ ] – [ ] |

Forecasts are bands, not promises. In backtests on past data, [share] of outcomes fell inside the 80% band.

*For:* everyone, but mainly the planning unit (input supply, campaign financing, import calendar discussions).

## 6. Data notes

- Markets covered this week: [n of n]. Missing: [market, reason].
- Observations rejected by quality checks: [n] (reason: [outside plausible range / unit error / duplicate]).
- Revisions to earlier weeks: [none / list].
- Field remarks from enumerators: [supply, transport, weather, policy events].

## 7. Distribution

| Audience | Format | What they get |
|---|---|---|
| Producers and cooperatives | SMS or voice message, local languages, Friday | Section 1 for their crop and nearest market, one line from section 4 |
| Agency planning unit | PDF and dashboard, Friday | Full bulletin and dataset |
| Donors and investors | Monthly digest | Sections 3–5, monthly averages, methods note |

## Writing rules

1. Plain words; no indicator without its unit.
2. A flag is a reason to look, not a conclusion. Say what is known about the cause, and what is not.
3. Never print a forecast without its band.
4. Report missing markets and rejected data every week, even when nothing is missing.
5. Same table layout every week, so readers can compare.